Saturday, January 3, 2015

A Meta Comparison between Season 4 and Season 5 (Patch 4.19 vs Patch 4.21)

With the new season right around the corner, I want to present some basic statistics comparing Season 4 and Season 5. In particular, I want to show some numbers regarding snowballing, objectives, and gold.

The data which I will be using is a collection of ~60k games played on Patch 4.19 (Season 4) and Patch 4.21 (Pre-Season5 / Season 5). All of these games are played by Diamond and up players on the NA server. I chose 4.21 instead of 4.20 due to some very significant changes (especially on dragon) that were introduced on 4.21.

Win Rate For Teams That Takes The First Objective


First let's look at the win rate for teams that takes the first objectives. There were a reddit post a while ago that talks about the win rate for teams that get the first dragon, but it wasn't very clear if it was Season 4 or 5. Using my data I get the following:

The Team that Gets: 4.19 4.21
First Dragon 69.28% 69.80%
First Baron 80.94% 80.02%
First Inhibitor 91.41% 90.85%
First Tower 66.02% 66.13%
First Blood 59.21% 59.85%
Number of Games 12816 49095

As you can see, the win rate for the team that gets first dragon did not really change too much from 4.19 to 4.21. As a matter of fact, none of the "First X" win rates changed too much  except First Baron (two-sided proportion tests with a significant level of 0.05 and Bonferroni correction yield no statistical significance). It's difficult to say if this is the intended result by Riot, but further analysis could shred more light onto the matter.

Gold Lead


Let's also look at gold - in particular, gold lead and win rate. During the two ESL Tournaments that were played on Patch 4.20, casters during ESL has repeatedly said that gold lead does not matter as much in Season 5 due to the Dragon changes. Is this actually true for solo queue for Diamond+ players? The answer seems to be "no".

Gold Differential @ 10th min 4.19 4.21
0 - 500 52.23% 52.90%
500 - 1000 60.65% 61.93%
1000 - 2000 70.83% 71.81%
2000 - 5000 85.15% 85.97%
5000 - ∞ 96.20% 98.42%
Gold Differential @ 19th min 4.19 4.21
0 - 500 51.87% 51.96%
500 - 1000 53.65% 57.04%
1000 - 2000 61.17% 63.23%
2000 - 5000 74.87% 77.70%
5000 - ∞ 94.56% 95.08%
Here, we see that with the same amount of gold lead, the team that is ahead in gold actually wins more often in 4.21. For example, a team that is leading in gold by 2000 - 5000 at 19th minute wins 74.87% of the time on 4.19 and 77.70% of the time on 4.21. In other words, there is evidence that gold differential has become MORE important with the new season, not less.

My theory is that with the Dragon no longer providing gold, it's harder to actually get a gold lead. Consequently, once you do get a gold lead, it is actually a lot more valuable. It is also possible that the team that leads in gold gets more dragons and vice-versa. Overall, if we look strictly at gold lead, it seems to be more significant in Season 5.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Legend of the Poro King Mode Statistics!

75k games collected.

Mirror matchups are filtered out for the computation of champion win rate (not for popularity).

Champion Win % Popularity
Sona 65.57% 22.45%
Heimerdinger 61.14% 11.18%
Janna 60.49% 7.49%
Kog'Maw 60.43% 5.99%
Sion 60.40% 7.68%
Swain 58.74% 4.16%
Galio 58.61% 9.20%
Maokai 58.12% 7.54%
Ziggs 57.64% 28.80%
Zyra 57.12% 4.49%
Vladimir 57.02% 4.25%
Karthus 56.95% 7.14%
Rammus 56.91% 3.17%
Wukong 56.27% 13.88%
Leona 55.96% 6.08%
Caitlyn 55.92% 12.59%
Alistar 55.90% 13.67%
Singed 55.80% 8.22%
Lux 55.75% 25.45%
Taric 55.61% 1.84%
Varus 55.58% 9.45%
Fiddlesticks 55.28% 16.28%
Talon 54.73% 7.98%
Sivir 54.53% 14.19%
Amumu 53.87% 10.60%
Garen 53.65% 10.65%
Malzahar 53.45% 13.51%
Vel'Koz 53.30% 10.50%
Miss Fortune 53.23% 9.77%
Teemo 53.21% 15.51%
Master Yi 53.13% 13.99%
Jinx 53.09% 17.70%
Katarina 52.84% 11.63%
Soraka 51.94% 8.37%
Fiora 51.91% 8.23%
Ashe 51.91% 14.17%
Poppy 51.74% 3.34%
Yorick 51.73% 1.28%
Draven 51.36% 3.47%
Trundle 51.28% 1.28%
Gangplank 51.27% 9.00%
Brand 51.24% 6.71%
Mordekaiser 50.95% 2.26%
Sejuani 50.94% 13.93%
Graves 50.43% 3.65%
Morgana 50.34% 14.96%
Jarvan IV 50.28% 5.65%
Jayce 50.26% 14.81%
Nautilus 50.24% 3.82%
Anivia 50.14% 3.02%
Dr. Mundo 50.00% 4.40%
Annie 49.47% 7.53%
Darius 49.43% 9.43%
Warwick 49.40% 2.65%
Diana 49.28% 2.87%
Nami 49.21% 4.44%
Blitzcrank 49.20% 18.67%
Viktor 49.16% 3.34%
Ezreal 49.15% 27.94%
Nasus 48.89% 2.89%
Xin Zhao 48.76% 4.63%
Karma 48.59% 5.53%
Twisted Fate 48.33% 6.61%
Olaf 48.19% 1.97%
Pantheon 48.15% 7.16%
Irelia 48.07% 2.78%
Gnar 47.79% 10.32%
Malphite 47.46% 10.22%
Volibear 47.36% 4.28%
Shen 47.35% 2.70%
Azir 47.18% 10.35%
Ryze 47.11% 2.86%
Xerath 47.11% 21.07%
Renekton 47.03% 2.10%
Cho'Gath 46.97% 8.27%
Cassiopeia 46.95% 2.77%
Ahri 46.93% 8.53%
Jax 46.87% 5.26%
Hecarim 46.76% 2.34%
Fizz 46.53% 11.60%
Corki 46.20% 4.11%
Quinn 45.92% 2.02%
RekSai 45.76% 13.38%
Rumble 45.76% 3.46%
Yasuo 45.54% 17.67%
Braum 45.52% 6.19%
Shyvana 44.98% 2.36%
Vi 44.74% 7.41%
Lissandra 44.71% 5.88%
Vayne 44.52% 5.95%
Veigar 44.52% 10.81%
Skarner 44.42% 3.92%
Nidalee 44.42% 24.56%
Orianna 44.39% 23.58%
Lucian 44.35% 15.40%
Kayle 44.18% 3.24%
Twitch 44.14% 3.69%
Shaco 43.97% 6.61%
Riven 43.76% 9.55%
Nunu 43.41% 4.27%
Kennen 43.25% 4.33%
Urgot 43.23% 0.94%
Nocturne 43.21% 0.76%
Zed 42.86% 14.02%
Lulu 42.71% 11.87%
Tryndamere 42.63% 3.47%
Gragas 42.50% 4.47%
Udyr 42.25% 1.66%
Akali 42.11% 7.43%
Rengar 41.85% 2.43%
Tristana 41.74% 7.59%
Kassadin 41.67% 2.60%
Kalista 40.83% 12.42%
Thresh 40.69% 6.53%
Syndra 40.62% 4.22%
Zac 40.45% 6.82%
Zilean 40.20% 8.58%
Aatrox 39.86% 1.40%
Lee Sin 39.72% 10.08%
Kha'Zix 39.27% 2.87%
Elise 38.97% 0.61%
LeBlanc 36.72% 9.80%
Evelynn 34.34% 0.52%



Side Win Rate
Blue Side 58.47%
Red Side 41.53%
I wish I made up the 58.47% win rate on blue side. Unfortunately, it's real.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Twisted Treeline Hexakill Statistics!

I gathered 55k Twisted Treeline Hexakill games since the game mode was enabled and computed the following statistics below:


1. Win Rate per Champion (highest to lowest):


Champion Name      Win %
Sona 61.05%
Janna 57.34%
Soraka 56.72%
Leona 56.56%
Zyra 56.38%
Katarina 56.33%
Ziggs 55.87%
Vel'Koz 55.76%
Fiddlesticks 55.64%
Galio 55.45%
Xerath 55.34%
Wukong 55.07%
Maokai 54.89%
Lux 54.78%
Fiora 54.43%
Rammus 54.33%
Morgana 53.92%
Nami 53.66%
Talon 53.06%
Karthus 53.05%
Brand 52.61%
Swain 52.38%
Caitlyn 52.25%
Blitzcrank 52.16%
Master Yi 52.08%
Xin Zhao 52.06%
Jarvan IV 52.06%
Graves 52.06%
Karma 51.98%
Kog'Maw 51.96%
Jinx 51.83%
Annie 51.75%
Cho'Gath 51.67%
Sion 51.57%
Amumu 51.55%
Sejuani 51.47%
Sivir 50.77%
Alistar 50.71%
Malzahar 50.54%
Kassadin 50.21%
Ezreal 50.20%
Ahri 50.13%
Poppy 50.12%
Jayce 50.03%
Taric 50.00%
Singed 49.97%
Ashe 49.72%
Quinn 49.68%
Varus 49.63%
Miss Fortune 49.52%
Braum 49.46%
Diana 49.42%
Pantheon 49.39%
Darius 49.37%
Lucian 49.26%
Heimerdinger 49.17%
Tryndamere 48.98%
Viktor 48.73%
Fizz 48.53%
Kayle 48.52%
Teemo 48.45%
Nidalee 48.44%
Ryze 48.39%
Volibear 48.27%
Nautilus 48.24%
Jax 48.20%
Draven 48.16%
Shaco 48.15%
Gangplank 48.04%
Riven 47.90%
Malphite 47.88%
Mordekaiser 47.86%
Lissandra 47.81%
Warwick 47.76%
Lee Sin 47.69%
Vi 47.64%
Garen 47.57%
Irelia 47.50%
Hecarim 47.46%
Olaf 47.45%
Kha'Zix 47.44%
Rumble 47.39%
Yorick 47.30%
Anivia 47.28%
Twisted Fate 47.26%
Lulu 47.18%
Vladimir 47.13%
Syndra 47.09%
Corki 47.05%
Trundle 46.92%
Orianna 46.86%
Udyr 46.86%
Dr. Mundo 46.67%
Gnar 46.20%
Thresh 46.12%
Cassiopeia 46.06%
Zac 45.84%
Twitch 45.83%
Zilean 45.81%
Veigar 45.79%
Aatrox 45.61%
Shyvana 45.47%
Yasuo 45.46%
Azir 45.40%
Vayne 45.18%
Urgot 45.13%
Shen 45.10%
Rengar 45.10%
Nunu 44.91%
Gragas 44.76%
Akali 44.67%
Nocturne 44.38%
Tristana 44.37%
Renekton 44.00%
LeBlanc 43.24%
Nasus 43.08%
Kennen 42.24%
Zed 41.69%
Evelynn 38.56%
Elise 38.45%


You may notice some of the champions are missing from this list. This is because I was not able to get at least 500 games of this champion in ~55k games. Yes, I am aware that the  same champion can be on both sides of the game; those games are filtered out in the computation for win rates.

2. Champion Popularity (highest to lowest):

Champion Name Popularity
Katarina 72.29%
Yasuo 35.53%
Lux 34.22%
Master Yi 29.60%
Blitzcrank 28.68%
Zed 26.65%
Wukong 26.59%
Teemo 25.75%
Orianna 24.03%
Ezreal 23.62%
Jayce 21.99%
Fiddlesticks 21.93%
Nidalee 20.24%
Maokai 17.48%
Riven 16.79%
Darius 16.73%
Malphite 16.25%
LeBlanc 15.78%
Jinx 15.75%
Sion 15.74%
Fizz 15.64%
Lee Sin 15.09%
Ziggs 14.73%
Azir 13.96%
Akali 13.78%
Gnar 13.68%
Sona 13.42%
Fiora 13.42%
Morgana 13.28%
Vayne 13.17%
Lucian 13.04%
Brand 12.49%
Vel'Koz 12.05%
Kha'Zix 11.88%
Tristana 11.73%
Twitch 11.16%
Gangplank 11.13%
Caitlyn 11.05%
Xerath 10.99%
Ashe 10.97%
Shaco 10.64%
Twisted Fate 10.48%
Karthus 10.35%
Braum 10.13%
Thresh 10.04%
Rengar 9.96%
Ahri 9.93%
Vladimir 9.92%
Ryze 9.37%
Amumu 9.28%
Alistar 8.74%
Veigar 8.73%
Annie 8.60%
Garen 8.56%
Talon 8.40%
Miss Fortune 8.34%
Heimerdinger 8.27%
Pantheon 8.22%
Rumble 8.19%
Jarvan IV 8.18%
Karma 7.81%
Corki 7.66%
Singed 7.54%
Zyra 7.54%
Leona 7.41%
Soraka 7.01%
Jax 6.73%
Zilean 6.71%
Cho'Gath 6.45%
Xin Zhao 6.36%
Varus 6.25%
Tryndamere 6.01%
Viktor 5.92%
Syndra 5.79%
Janna 5.55%
Hecarim 5.37%
Dr. Mundo 4.97%
Shyvana 4.83%
Kayle 4.75%
Nami 4.64%
Sivir 4.57%
Swain 4.47%
Malzahar 4.40%
Rammus 4.35%
Galio 4.33%
Lulu 4.20%
Vi 4.13%
Warwick 4.09%
Anivia 4.08%
Draven 4.03%
Poppy 4.03%
Kassadin 4.01%
Volibear 3.93%
Kog'Maw 3.84%
Lissandra 3.83%
Mordekaiser 3.73%
Nautilus 3.68%
Udyr 3.61%
Cassiopeia 3.56%
Nunu 3.39%
Diana 3.18%
Graves 3.12%
Gragas 3.07%
Irelia 2.99%
Sejuani 2.96%
Kennen 2.84%
Nasus 2.73%
Quinn 2.63%
Nocturne 2.58%
Renekton 2.58%
Olaf 2.53%
Shen 2.34%
Aatrox 2.26%
Zac 2.08%
Yorick 2.06%
Trundle 1.78%
Taric 1.55%
Evelynn 1.39%
Urgot 1.35%
Elise 1.11%
Skarner 0.67%

3. Side advantage

SideWin %
Blue49.77%
Purple50.22%